ISIS should not be underestimated at Baghdad

If there is one thing we have learned about the ongoing conflict in southwest Asia with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it would be that the group has consistently overcome flippant designations such as being termed “the J-V squad.”  ISIS had outpaced nearly all predictions of having only limited possibilities for successful actions, particularly in terms of territorial acquisitions, and the same psychology is prevailing in the American and Western military appraisals of the potential of ISIS to secure points in and around Baghdad.

One of the most crucial of these locales is the international airport that services Baghdad and that is located in its suburbs.  Recently, ISIS forces, with the conquest of Abu Ghraib, have closed to within eight miles of Baghdad International Airport, a mere hop-skip-and-jump to the core aviation and supply facility that keeps Baghdad defensible by providing a constant source of war materiel, food, potable water, and many other commodities which make the veritable desert outpost workable as a city and military presence.

Yet military authorities in both Iraq and the West still denigrate the potential of ISIS to pose a credible threat against the airport, echoing previous underestimations of the terrorist army that has swept sixty-percent of Iraq’s territory and a large part of the Syrian geography.  The specifics that characterize the overall advance of ISIS argue for the possibility of the airport succumbing to the ISIS threat.

Anbar, a province of Iraq that abuts the administrative district in which Baghdad is located, has mostly been taken by storm by the Islamic State. These victories include taking the city of Fallujah, which bears much American blood as a result of one of the most contentious conflicts fought by our troops in the Iraq war.  Only a few holdouts against the terrorist wave have been achieved in Anbar, including the defense of the resilient city of Ramadi (which barely holds on to half of the jurisdiction), but, by and large, Iraqi population centers and military facilities  have fallen hard to the black flag of ISIS throughout Anbar province.

Now the ISIS terror machine has secured eighty-percent or more of the mostly desert Anbar province and has used that conquest to make a slow and methodical approach to Baghdad airport, holding many key areas around that facility.  The forces of ISIS and Iraq stand behind berms only a few miles away from one another and lob mortar shots back and forth in a sadistic, random game of selective, occasional slaughter.

What is this magical property that the Iraqi army now possesses that will inhibit further defeats at the hand of ISIS?  Experts cite the sheer number of Iraqi troops in the Baghdad area at 100,000 strong, with some as “fiercely loyal,” and that the aerial capacities of the allied presence make a ground approach to Baghdad improbable and ultimately unsuccessful.

As improbable and ultimately unsuccessful as ISIS has been predicted to be all along?

There is a real possibility that a greater concentration of ISIS forces could be achieved at Baghdad airport once the siege of the Kurdish city of Kobani is completed or abandoned.  If ISIS can muster 10,000 or some other large number of fighters at the periphery of Baghdad airport, the terrorists may attack the facility.  Although government troops may outnumber the attackers, many Iraqi soldiers in the past have fled, deserted, and generally panicked at the prospect of being captured and beheaded by ISIS forces, so you can count on some attrition if there is an assault.

Although the government may be favored in such a battle, there are too many intangibles that ISIS brings to the battlefield for conventional military wisdom to always apply.  Quite simply, regardless of the numbers of combatants and the adequacy of the defenses, ISIS could prevail in isolated instances near and at the Baghdad airport, which could lead to a cascading failure of the overall defense of the installation, partly due to terror inspired in the hearts and minds of the defenders, a development which would typify the military record of ISIS this year.

Should the airport fall, ISIS would be at the doorstep of Baghdad and in much closer mortar-range of large parts of the city.  The psychological dimension of bombs falling into the city proper would take a considerable toll on morale and confidence of all allied forces.  But this is not the worst outcome.

ISIS has secured three fighter aircraft that they may not be able to operate at full capacity.  ISIS may, however, be able to enable the basic functioning of the aircraft enough to fly (possibly under radar) into the Baghdad city defenses to perforate the security of the city.  Through the utter confusion and disarray such an attack might cause, small, individual groups of ISIS fighters might penetrate imperfections in the city’s military perimeter.

So what?  A band of a few brigands could only kill a few people before being stopped, right?  At most, it seems, there could be a few dozen casualties from some sort of suicidal bombing, and the group would be stopped.  As unfortunate as that would be, it would not lead to the fall of Baghdad, right?

But what if the penetrating group is carrying a radiological dispersion device – a “dirty bomb” – and that device is somehow delivered at the Green Zone, the nerve center of Iraqi and allied military and governmental activity.  The Green Zone becomes uninhabitable, some degree of chaos ensues, command and control functions could deteriorate, and the siege of Baghdad could conceivably become successful.

This is an unlikely turn of events, but is by no means is an impossibility.  It is entirely possible that ISIS has secured some radiologically-active material that could be exploded to create a zone of intense radioactivity.  It could well be smuggled in even if a penetration of the defensive perimeter of Baghdad is not damaged.  Certainly if that line of defense was thrown into confusion, the chances of a team delivering the “dirty bomb” would be enhanced.  With the added spoiler of three stolen aircraft flown by ISIS into the crux of the situation, there are no guarantees that the absolute, impenetrable defense of Baghdad could be maintained.

So when you are having your morning coffee and a “talking head” tells you how safe Baghdad is, remember how safe other Iraqi bases and cities were thought to be six months ago.  Enjoy the cup of joe you are having that morning and savor the feeling of peacetime in America.  If the 10,000 Americans stationed and working in Baghdad are poisoned or killed by a “dirty bomb,” even Mr. Obama will have to answer an undeniably clear and present danger with military force, and our days of relative peace will be over. ~~~